二噁英的理化性质及在乳及乳制品中污染的研究进展

本文主要分析了二噁英的理化性质,重点介绍了乳及乳制品中二噁英的污染情况,并提出有效措施给予预防和解决,以有效降低二噁英在乳及乳制品中的危害性,确保乳及乳制品行业的健康发展。通过对二噁英的理化性质进行研究,为乳及乳制品的安全生产提供可靠保障,以实现经济与社会效益的最大化。     

Exchange rate sensitivity of commodity flows between the Philippines and the US

Previous studies that tried to assess the impact of exchange rate changes on the inpayments and outpayments of a country used aggregate trade flows between two countries. They are said to suffer from aggregation bias, and disaggregation by industry is recommended. In this paper, we consider response to exchange rate changes of export earnings (inpayments) of 133 industries that export from the US to the Philippines (Philippines’ importing industries) and outpayments of 65 US industries (Philippines exporting industries) that import from the Philippines using annual data over the period 1973–2012. While in most industries exchange rate changes had significant effects in the short run, the short-run effects did not last into the long run in most industries. Economic activity played more role in the long run than the exchange rate.     

The Effects of Central Banks’ Rate Change Patterns on Financial Market Variables

This study examines whether different patterns of change to the benchmark interest rates of central banks are associated with their contributions to variances in the forecast errors of three financial market variables: the long-term interest rate, the foreign exchange rate, and the stock market index. On average, the central bank’s interest rate accounts for approximately 20% of the variance in each variable. We find that the total range of changes is more important than the frequency of changes. The panel regression shows that the range and frequency of policy rate changes is positively associated with the volatility of long-term interest rates but no association with the volatility of stock prices and exchange rates. These results suggest that small and frequent adjustments of policy rates are desirable for reducing the volatility of interest rates. The panel VAR represents interest rate channel is a more important than exchange rate and stock price channel.     

Industry‐specific Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Japanese Exports and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Using a panel vector autoregression approach and industry breakdown data for financial constraints obtained from the Bank of Japan's Tankan (Short‐Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) database, this study empirically investigates whether and how Japanese firms' financial constraints (internal and external) influence the response of Japanese sectoral exports to an exchange rate shock. Furthermore, we use the industry‐specific real effective exchange rate data developed by to allow for different movements of real effective exchange rates across industries. It is found that financial constraints have a significant influence on Japanese exports in response to exchange rate shocks. Japanese exporters with either lower internal financial constraints or external financial constraints are less affected by the yen's appreciation. In addition, if firms face high external financial constraints, only reducing the internal financial constraints cannot help them mitigate the impact of the yen's appreciation on their exports. Thus, an accommodative financial environment also plays an important role in alleviating the impact that the yen's appreciation has on Japanese exports.     

如何发挥产业转移的雾霾治理效应?——基于长三角地区的实证研究

为探究如何借助产业转移实现雾霾污染的有效治理,文章以长三角地区内各城市 PM2.5 日均浓度为样本,在运用 Hsiao 格兰杰因果检验等计量方法揭示了区域内城市间雾霾污染溢出效 应具体特征的基础上,指出了怎样的产业转移才能实现雾霾治理的效果。实证结果表明:(1)区 域内各城市雾霾污染的溢出效应是普遍存在的;(2)各城市雾霾溢出效应的强弱与其地理位置有 关;(3)污染程度较高的城市并不一定呈现出更强的溢出效应。故结合产业现状来看,现行的产 业转移并不能有效缓解长三角地区的雾霾污染问题,必须结合雾霾污染及溢出特征调整产业转移 政策、优化产业转移方向,实施区域协同治理、集中化高效治理。     

基于剩余评价期的经济评价方法研究及在长输管道中的应用

针对传统的内部收益率存在参数条件变化需要对数据进行还原调整,且历史数据缺失时无法使用,或企业管理者不注重历史收益状况的情况,提出了基于管道项目剩余评价期的内部收益率指标,并结合油气长输管道运营实际,分别构建了运营期现金流量均衡、非均衡两种情形下的评价模型,计算分析了不同剩余评价期内部收益率与全评价期基准收益率的对应关系。最后针对某管道企业的3条管道进行了实例测算,对测算结果进行分析和评价。     

Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model

Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggests that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture deviations between announced paths and market forward rates. We detail the macroeconomic transmission of such deviations and show how the model can inform policy deliberations.     

Capital expenditures and firm performance: evidence from a cross‐sectional analysis of stock returns

Using a simple two‐period model of investment, we show that there should be a nonlinear relation between a firm's investment‐to‐capital ratio and its subsequent stock returns. This prediction finds substantial empirical support. The evidence indicates that the slope of the investment function is negative at low investment levels, close to zero at intermediate investment levels and negative at high investment levels. Our results, which are robust to the use of narrowly‐ and broadly‐defined measures of capital investment, pose a challenge to the hypothesis that the negative cross‐sectional correlation between investment and stock returns is attributable to some sort of overinvestment phenomenon.     

财政赤字、铸币收入与通货膨胀

当政府出现较严重的财政赤字时,增收铸币税具有重要意义。在面临通货膨胀威胁时,必须适当放慢货币供应速度,减少铸币收入。理论证明,在通货膨胀严重时期,减少铸币税可以有效缓解通货膨胀。